Dr Battersby made his observations in a Q&A with New Zealand Security Magazine (NZSM), in which he has shared his thoughts on the royal commission of inquiry into the Christchurch terror attacks.

In his responses, he described an idiosyncratic domestic security environment, characterised by, on the one hand, relatively low risk coupled with, on the other, a lack of vigilance and interest from successive governments.

Dr Battersby said one of the commission’s “more insightful” observations was about the lack of a centralised and coordinated counter-terrorism system in New Zealand, highlighting the need for better coordination among government agencies.

“We need a better understanding of security in general, a holistic approach to all risks, and a better integration of public and private security.”

Dr Battersby has previously been critical of “public, bureaucratic and political disinterest” in counter terrorism. However, he said, a recommendation to create yet another bureaucratic body, “which would add a further set of barriers through which information has to pass”, seldom solved intelligence-sharing and coordination issues.

He noted that a lot of “genuine” terror mitigation work was done on the ground. It was often observant security guards, curious members of the public or police constables who noticed when something was out of place.

“In 1975, it was a simple burglar alarm that alerted police to three men attempting to break into the Horokiwi Quarry north of Wellington. Police responded and caught the men who later admitted they were going to steal gelignite to blow up an overseas diplomatic mission in Wellington.

“In 1985, it was a sharp-eyed travel agent who spotted passport irregularities that led to the arrest of two DGSE agents involved in the bombing of the Rainbow Warrior.”

Asked about continuing gaps and weakness in the system, Dr Battersby said terrorism needed to be understood as a tactic used by those prepared to use violence and not defined by ideological standpoints.

The commission concluded that an inappropriate amount of security resources were given to Islamist extremism and not enough to right-wing extremism, but its own evidence undermined that, he said.

“The report cited 9/11 and 32 other international terror events as formative in shaping the Five Eyes security arrangements between 2001 and 2018. Of these, 24 were militant Islamist attacks, killing 4069 people. Only six attacks over the period were by right-wing extremists, killing 111 people. On this evidence, it is difficult for the commission’s observation to stand.”

Speaking to Police News on that point, Dr Battersby said it did not mean that right-wing extremism wasn’t a risk – “it certainly is” – but the country should not be proportioning more or fewer resources based on a person’s, or a group’s, ideology.

Rather than people who identified with particular ideologies, he told NZSM, it was people who actively sought to impose their views through threats and acts of violence who posed the risk “and it’s them we need to find”.

Regarding other recommendations made by the commission, Dr Battersby said firearms regulations and licensing reform was long overdue and he applauded the immediate ending of over-the-counter sales of MSSAs.

“Clear and sensible arms regulations reform should, and I expect will happen, but the broader recommendations of social cohesion and coordinated government approaches may struggle to gain traction. The problem is that New Zealand has no clear terrorism risk – it has a potted history of one-time-only, lone actors committing one-time-only acts.”

There was a fine line to tread between avoiding “our old complacency” but not overstepping the mark of a proportionate and effective response.

“I do not believe we are in any greater danger of a terrorism attack now than we were before, although, to be sure, we were always at greater risk than most people realised.”

Terrorism trends needed to be monitored, although it would always be difficult to catch genuinely careful planners and security conscious lone actors.

“Old leftist causes have long since died, but inactivity on climate change may well see increasing activism from the left that will drift toward violence to stimulate change and more nuanced issues such as 1080 or race relations may undulate as they have in the past.”

Such issues could add to the existing risks that are considered most prominent now.

Dr Battersby is a Teaching Fellow at the Centre for Defence and Security Studies at Massey University. He has been researching terrorism for several years, and regularly presents to security sector audiences including New Zealand Police. The views expressed in the NZSM are his own.